Tuesday, March 17, 2009

The fallacy of " Economic Growth Engine "

  1. In the light of the this economic recession. We start to see that letting the US to be a growth engine for the world economy is a very bad idea. When the engine stops moving, we are not moving anywhere.
  2. Since the Bretton Woods agreement, the US dollar has been treated as if it was gold itself since it is promised that the US dollar could be redeemed in gold. However the gold standard has been put to death after the some nations started to redeem their dollar reserves with gold, which has caused the US stockpile of gold to decline. Since then the US dollar has been a fiat currency.
  3. What gave the US dollar its value is its acceptance as a reserve currency and the use of the US dollar in the international trade. Without this special status, the US dollar is merely just a piece of toilet paper which can be used to wipe your ass.
  4. Countries like Russia has already started to question the viability of the US dollar as reserve and its usage in international trade.
  5. Warping back to the current economic crisis, we have seen that the US government has decided to stimulate its economy by throwing money at the problem. Trillion of dollars has been pledged in attempt to keep their economy alive. Where does this trillion of dollars come from ? They are planning to get all this money by issuing treasury bonds.
  6. China has started to question the viability of these treasury bonds and financial instruments. After all these years, China has bought billions of US Treasury Bonds. By buying bonds, they are providing more money for the US to spend on its goods. However, looking into the current economic situation, and the new US protective economic measures. The policy doesn't seems to be in the favor of the Chinese.
  7. If the Chinese is buying US treasury bonds, and the US government failed to revive their economy. I believe that the Chinese will stop buying US Treasury Bonds. If this ever occurs, it means that the US government will not be able to generate enough funds to revive their economy. The US government will have to sought to " Quantitative Easing " or in other words, printing money as if it is printing the daily newspapers.
  8. The result of of quantitative easing is the devaluation of the currency. As the US dollar loses its value, those who holds US dollar will also suffer the losses. How about all those US dollar reserves in most central banks ? I think you can figure it out.
  9. We have to take note that, fiat money is not true wealth. The value of the US dollar depends on the economic situation. By printing money, it is evident that the US dollar has lose its credibility as a reserve currency. Even though at the moment, we see that the value of the US dollar is exceptionally high due to mass deleveraging in the world economy. I believe that the US dollar is going to crash down in the long run. When the pledged fund is monetized we will see that the market is flooded with US dollars.
  10. I am sure most of us still remembered what happened to the Zimbabwean Dollar. Can you get the picture ?

No comments: